Suomeksi

Short term forecast of new registrations in Finland

The forecast of passenger and van registrations are formed in a forecast group which has members representing the Association of Automobile Importers in Finland and The Finnish Central Organisation for Motor Trades and Repairs (AKL).  The forecasts are based on economic development, statistics of customer orders as well as the changes in the operational environment. The forecast of registrations of trucks and buses are based on expert interviews and they are compiled in the Association of Automobile Importers in Finland. The forecasts are updated 3-4 times a year.

Latest forecasts

 

new registrations

forecasts of new registrations

2014

2015

2016

2017

published

passenger cars

106.236

108.812

118.991

120.000 

8.2.2017

vans

10.624

11.431

13.523

15.000 

8.2.2017

lorries, < 6 t
 410 338 434 500 3.2.2017
lorries, 6-16 t
 197 243 297 320 3.2.2017
lorries, > 16 t
 1.953
 2.126
 2.599
 2.800
 3.2.2017
lorries

2.560

2.707

3.330

3.620

3.2.2017

buses 691 526 586 5203.2.2017


Forecasts are based on slightly growing economic development and moderate decline of the registration tax in 2016–2019. Ministry of Finance has anticipated an annual growth of 0.9-1.1% in 2017-2018. The forecasts of finance sector and research institutes for annual growth of gross domestic production are 1.0-1.8%. Export and investments are expected to increase faster than gross domestic production.

Number of new passenger car registrations has been assessed to increase in 2017 to 120.000 cars (1% increase). During 2000–2008 the number of new registrations was on average 135.000 passenger cars per year, but after 2008 the amount has been significantly smaller.

New registrations of trucks and vans are strongly dependent on economic development and investment needs of the companies. According to the recent road transport barometers of Finnish Transport and Logistics the year 2016 was more positive than expected for the road transport companies. Many companies have purchased new vehicles or are intending to update their vehicle fleet in the near future. Also the profitability and employment in the transport sector are anticipated to improve in 2017.

During 2000–2010 the amount of new registered vans was on the average 13.500 per year. According to the forecast the number of registrations will increase to 15.000 vans in 2017. The number of new registered trucks of over 16 tons has been anticipated to increase to 2.800 vehicles, by 8%. New registrations of lorries of 6-16 tons weight has been assessed to increase by 8 % to 320 vehicles. Number of new registrations of small lorries (under 6 tons) has been estimated to increase to 500 vehicles.

Due to the new public transport legislation, new registrations of buses grew exceptionally strongly in 2014–2015. New registration figures of buses have varied between 400 and 500 during the last decades. In 2017 the number has been anticipated to decrease slightly.


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